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Old 03-07-2018, 01:43 PM   #1156
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This explains what happen to BTC since december. MT Gox trustee sold off half a billion dollars worth of BTC and BCH bin large chunks. Every time they transferred to the exchange, it caused a dip in the market. Since all other crypto currencies are valued based on BTC, all of them lost value.

https://mobile.twitter.com/matt_odel...32146656202752

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Old 03-09-2018, 02:31 PM   #1157
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Just FYI for you guys as I've bought some over the past week:

LMT
CVX
XOM
LYB
PEP

Those are the stocks I started positions in this week after taking some profits in others.
I haven't completely sold off anything and am as much invested currently as I was at the bottom of the correction.

The stocks I bought up above are generally value plays, as opposed to growth, and pay a decent dividend.

That said, GROWTH is where this market's heading, which is in part why these value stocks are down.

However, I'm just starting some small positions and will follow up as able depending on the whims of the market. My portfolio of late has been dominated by growth stocks.

Pick up BEST OF BREED, GROWTH companies on dips for the most part.
That's my advice.

But don't pass up a sweet deal either.



FWIW, one of the major problems with these dividend yielding value stocks is that as interest rates rise, their dividends become less an incentive to buy or hold as people move into the safety of bonds and CDs.

For information purposes.
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Old 03-10-2018, 08:15 PM   #1158
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Everything about the stock market and the charts looks awesome right now.

Truly superlative.

Anyone else have any thoughts on it?

It looks so good I'm worried I'm missing something.

Bring me down to Earth....
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Old 03-10-2018, 11:15 PM   #1159
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Everything about the stock market and the charts looks awesome right now.

Truly superlative.

Anyone else have any thoughts on it?

It looks so good I'm worried I'm missing something.

Bring me down to Earth....
Agree with you. Seems Teflon. I'm a bit worried also, can't help but think calm before the storm, except nothing on the radar. Continual good job reports does make me wonder how all new jobs will be filled with low unemployment. Is there a workforce for infrastructure rebuilding. Thing that concerns me is deficit and raising interest rates.
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Old 03-11-2018, 02:02 PM   #1160
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I agree with the rising interest rates concern posted above. The FED seems intent on bending it until it breaks this year.

IMHO they waited too long to start raising the rates. We should’ve started doing two .25 point raises annually in ‘12. And that should’ve been communicated so everyone knew what to expect & what the timeline was. That would’ve put us right where we need to be now. But I guess that’s an entirely different topic.

Bottom line I’m still exactly where I’ve been for 14~ish months now; Hold, hold, hold.
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Old 03-11-2018, 03:00 PM   #1161
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I agree with the rising interest rates concern posted above. The FED seems intent on bending it until it breaks this year.

IMHO they waited too long to start raising the rates. We should’ve started doing two .25 point raises annually in ‘12. And that should’ve been communicated so everyone knew what to expect & what the timeline was. That would’ve put us right where we need to be now. But I guess that’s an entirely different topic.

Bottom line I’m still exactly where I’ve been for 14~ish months now; Hold, hold, hold.
Really?

I just keep going up, up, up.
My portfolio's been on fire for the past two weeks.

Last quarter of 2017 wasn't great but I was positioning myself for gains now, buying stocks on their respective downturns. Unfortunately, some of them just kept going down for a time. That works out fine but only up to a point.
Anyhow, I failed to keep up with the market into the end of the year but I seem to be more than making up for it.

I missed the correction some.
I had just started selling off some the week before it took a dive so I was cash light at the time. I like being at least 25% cash at those points but I ended up less than 10% cash.
Did sell a few things and buy others though. That seems to have made a helluva difference.

I'm not too worried about interest rates at the moment. Everyone's worried about Powell but unless there are signs of inflation I don't expect more than the current pace of interest rate increases.
SSDFC

Hopefully, your trades start on the upturn.
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Old 03-11-2018, 03:21 PM   #1162
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Just FWIW, corrections are a good time to upgrade your portfolio.

You can pick up some nice blue chips for a sweet price.

Just putting it out there for those who don't see that.
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Old 03-11-2018, 10:26 PM   #1163
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Hopefully, your trades start on the upturn.
Maybe my post sounded a little more negative than I intended. I’m doing quite well in the market this year. I’m just not making many moves, I did add to my long positions during the correction. But I haven’t started a new position in a while. Nothing much excites me & I’ve been quite busy working on a new project so I haven't had the time to devote to the market I usually do.

I will say I’ve been very happy with my foreign/emerging market mutual funds & ETF’s. An incredibly boring & uninspired way to trade but damn have they run over the last 9/10/11 months. I timed my entry into that sector quite well.

I am heavier in cash than I have been in probably a decade. I’ve got a couple CD’s reaching maturity later this year as well so at some point I am going to have to sit down & plot some moves going forward. But unless there’s a significant downward move I’m holding. Just riding the, mostly, rising tide.
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Old 03-11-2018, 10:47 PM   #1164
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Maybe my post sounded a little more negative than I intended. I’m doing quite well in the market this year. I’m just not making many moves, I did add to my long positions during the correction. But I haven’t started a new position in a while. Nothing much excites me & I’ve been quite busy working on a new project so I haven't had the time to devote to the market I usually do.

I will say I’ve been very happy with my foreign/emerging market mutual funds & ETF’s. An incredibly boring & uninspired way to trade but damn have they run over the last 9/10/11 months. I timed my entry into that sector quite well.

I am heavier in cash than I have been in probably a decade. I’ve got a couple CD’s reaching maturity later this year as well so at some point I am going to have to sit down & plot some moves going forward. But unless there’s a significant downward move I’m holding. Just riding the, mostly, rising tide.
That's good.

There are things to buy out there, and there will be more in the not too distant future, IMO.

But what one person considers a good deal and a good investment is variable.

For now, I seem to have just hit the right rhythm of moves. Doesn't work out like that a lot but every so often....

We'll see though. It looks like it's going to be an interesting year. Lots of fun if it works out.
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Old 03-11-2018, 11:41 PM   #1165
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This Mt. Gox shit has me pissed. I invested 10k in mining equipment and have them mining 24/7. I was earning around $21-$24 a day before power costs. Now im down to around $16-$18 a day after the Mt. Gox bullshit. Oh well, I dont need the $$ now so I will hold all Btc earnings (I get paid in Btc) and wait who knows how long for it to go back up to a point im ready to sell. Meanwhile Im speculating there will be alot of miners that cant afford to keep going or get nervous easily and start flooding the used market with cheap GPU's. Im all over that! I will have a mining farm by end of summer if they all get scared!
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Old 03-12-2018, 11:08 AM   #1166
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This AM, bought:

XOM
LMT
GM
PG

Just an FYI.
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Old 03-12-2018, 06:03 PM   #1167
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Kicked it again today.

I bought heavily into semiconductor stocks over the past 5 months after trading them in and out last year.

AMAT
MU
WDC
SWKS

Well, if you're paying attention, the damn things are just kicking fucking ass.

This is the best month I've ever had and it's only the 12th.

Trimming my allocation in these, using the gains to buy some nice blue chips that are somewhat beaten up. Charts say buy....

I wish I could claim some great skill or intellect....oh wait, I can!....seriously though, I feel like I just slipped and fell in it.
Lot of risk getting 40% invested in one industry though. Man, I was watching things close.
That's something I try to avoid but it just looked sooo easy...I just kept buying every time they'd get slammed again.

Do watch the industrials though.
Also energy/materials and financials.
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Old 03-12-2018, 07:58 PM   #1168
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My investing advice get out of anything paper as much as you can, and that includes stocks. My bank sent me a letter a year or two ago and the letter said “for your saftey we can turn all your holdings into treasuries, that includes stocks”. I have a little in the mining sector, nothing I won’t miss if it’s “bailed in”
There is something on the radar. Proof it’s afoot is the major change in the oil trade. For 40 years the U.S. gives our paper for their oil, why would we start exporting oil when we could just give this paper for it? Luke Gromen brought that question up. This month China supposedly starts the oil futures on the Shanghai exchange or something, sort of a big “nail in the petrodollar coffin”. Jerry Robinson has a great peace on the Petro dollar system.

If you got time to kill, u might lookup Luke Gromen Twitter, Willem middelkoop author “big reset” and a few fantastic interviews. His interviewer (Grant Williams) also has a fantastic video and article on zero hedge.

“You will not be warned when the bank holidays come” nov 2015 zerohedge article.
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Old 03-12-2018, 08:04 PM   #1169
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My investing advice get out of anything paper as much as you can, and that includes stocks. My bank sent me a letter a year or two ago and the letter said “for your saftey we can turn all your holdings into treasuries, that includes stocks”. I have a little in the mining sector, nothing I won’t miss if it’s “bailed in”
There is something on the radar. Proof it’s afoot is the major change in the oil trade. For 40 years the U.S. gives our paper for their oil, why would we start exporting oil when we could just give this paper for it? Luke Gromen brought that question up. This month China supposedly starts the oil futures on the Shanghai exchange or something, sort of a big “nail in the petrodollar coffin”. Jerry Robinson has a great peace on the Petro dollar system.

If you got time to kill, u might lookup Luke Gromen Twitter, Willem middelkoop author “big reset” and a few fantastic interviews. His interviewer (Grant Williams) also has a fantastic video and article on zero hedge.

“You will not be warned when the bank holidays come” nov 2015 zerohedge article.
Zerohedge

Bank holidays

Getting financial advice from a bankster

Treasury notes for oil instead of getting our own

Then investing in the same shitty treasuries your bankster recommends?



You need to wake up, bud.
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Old 03-12-2018, 09:32 PM   #1170
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Treasury notes for oil instead of getting our own

Then investing in the same shitty treasuries your bankster recommends?
.
I didn’t say either of those.

Those are some very smart guys and some really good articles, oh well, good luck.
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Old 03-12-2018, 10:04 PM   #1171
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I have a little in the mining sector, nothing I won’t miss if it’s “bailed in”
Meaning I got a couple bucks in the center console when I took my car to the shop, if it gets swiped I’m not going to miss it, it’s not my life savings, I had the best ticker on the exchange a few years ago, did very well with a tiny bit of cash. I left a tiny bit Of HOUSE MONEY ride.
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Old 03-12-2018, 11:32 PM   #1172
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Just FYI for you guys as I've bought some over the past week:

LMT
CVX
XOM
LYB
PEP

Those are the stocks I started positions in this week after taking some profits in others.
I haven't completely sold off anything and am as much invested currently as I was at the bottom of the correction.

The stocks I bought up above are generally value plays, as opposed to growth, and pay a decent dividend.

That said, GROWTH is where this market's heading, which is in part why these value stocks are down.

However, I'm just starting some small positions and will follow up as able depending on the whims of the market. My portfolio of late has been dominated by growth stocks.

Pick up BEST OF BREED, GROWTH companies on dips for the most part.
That's my advice.

But don't pass up a sweet deal either.



FWIW, one of the major problems with these dividend yielding value stocks is that as interest rates rise, their dividends become less an incentive to buy or hold as people move into the safety of bonds and CDs.

For information purposes.
pretty much agree with everything you said. I like your thoughts thanks for sharing.

I will be looking to buy LMT BIDU AND BABA next.
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:02 AM   #1173
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pretty much agree with everything you said. I like your thoughts thanks for sharing.

I will be looking to buy LMT BIDU AND BABA next.
Don't follow BIDU but BABA's chart looks like a downturn is upcoming.
Projected growth is poor also.

I"m watching it for a deal price also.
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:05 AM   #1174
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Meaning I got a couple bucks in the center console when I took my car to the shop, if it gets swiped I’m not going to miss it, it’s not my life savings, I had the best ticker on the exchange a few years ago, did very well with a tiny bit of cash. I left a tiny bit Of HOUSE MONEY ride.
We're happy to have your input on some investment idea you have that has or is paying off. Or even if it didn't.

This isn't the place for the sky is falling, run for the hills stuff though.

This is for active investors and what we're doing.

If you don't see it that way, start a doom and gloom thread of your own in NCE. I can guarantee there will be plenty who share your opinion.
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Old 03-13-2018, 04:23 PM   #1175
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Well, that wasn't so much fun. lol

I couldn't find anything to buy out of it either.

Maybe tomorrow.

I do see the financials start to lag just a little here.
Those would be the next sector I'd like to buy so they could come down a little bit more.
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Old 03-13-2018, 09:42 PM   #1176
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Doc -- slightly off topic, but if you'll indulge me for a moment...

Sandman I would like to know what bank sent you this correspondence. Was this for an FDIC insured deposit account?

Was it a state bank or National Bank or credit union etc. This does not sound right at all for an FDIC insured deposit account.

Once you exceed FDIC account limits, the rules are different (used to be called brokered accounts and some people got burned w them during the financial crisis).
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Old 03-13-2018, 09:51 PM   #1177
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BS First Bank of Springfield
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Old 03-14-2018, 11:09 AM   #1178
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I'll say again, watch the financial sector.

Not sure why but it looks like it's coming down. Might take a little bit.

Of course, it could turn up at any point also but it looks like money is just flowing into other sectors.

C, for instance, might be forming a head and shoulders in its chart.
We'll see. I'm fine if it doesn't but if it does, I'll be buying.
The large money center banks like this tend to trade together.
I'm not a fan of WFC at all for now.
JPM just won't ever come down far enough for me to buy.
BAC is one I own a little of, having sold off most. I wouldn't mind getting back in but not at current price. That needs to come down at least around 30, preferably lower, before I'm a buyer again.

Just my 2 cents, guys.

The financials I currently own are C, BAC, MS, GS.
I don't consider any of them a buy at the moment but I'd definitely like to pick up more.
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Old 03-14-2018, 01:35 PM   #1179
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SPY is getting a little bounce off support from the 50day moving average.

Worth noting.

We'll see if it can hold.
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Old 03-14-2018, 08:47 PM   #1180
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Doc -- slightly off topic, but if you'll indulge me for a moment...

Sandman I would like to know what bank sent you this correspondence. Was this for an FDIC insured deposit account?

Was it a state bank or National Bank or credit union etc. This does not sound right at all for an FDIC insured deposit account.

Once you exceed FDIC account limits, the rules are different (used to be called brokered accounts and some people got burned w them during the financial crisis).
USAA.

the “bail ins” are legal on the book pretty much everywhere.

FWIW, those guys I mentioned earlier are all big time investors, 3 international in scope speaking at conferences giving investing advice , macro voices & real vision ect.

If your Teflon & wanna stay in the market I would get out of equities and get into commodities. theirs a chart I saw somewhere and it shows we are at a top in one and a bottom in the other. If your game before you act I would suggest the mining report from SRSROCCO, best $25 dollars I ever spent. 2 many miners are just pump & dump scams, easy to get burned. I put my tax return in the market 03-13-2009 & made money easy because everything was on sale, all but the miners. I literally just watched it evaporate.

Short & simple just copy JPmorgan & Goldman Sachs, Jp has the largest physical holding & GS is trying to buy ScotiaMocatta last I heard.

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Old 03-14-2018, 09:11 PM   #1181
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BS First Bank of Springfield
I wish, lol. I was surprised to say the least, reading internet hyperbole is one thing receiving a letter from your bank is quite another. I took a picture of it I was so taken aback.

It’s all explained in the zero banking holiday article I referenced earlier.
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Old 03-17-2018, 08:11 PM   #1182
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Do keep an eye on the yield curve, gents.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php


There is a rather humorous saying in the investment field:

"The yield curve has predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions."

So, it isn't always predictive.

Given what the central banks have been doing and artificially low rates, consumer sentiment picking up, global economic growth ongoing, I'm not certain we're heading for a recession.
It is possible. Hard to see 1-3 years out, but as long as the central banks don't take a giant piss on a heating up economy to cool it off, we might dodge one for now.

However, it might lead people to sell off and become a buying opportunity, esp with volatility having increased into 2018.

So, it will pay to have some dry powder (cash to invest) at times in order to increase profits from investing.

Tough call to make at the moment.


Thoughts??
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Old 03-18-2018, 02:57 PM   #1183
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Thx for clarifying Sandman. I am very similar in thinking to where you are but there is A LOT of misinformation out there about bank bail ins and how they apply to your plain Jane FDIC insured deposit accounts, covered by FDICIA.

So called bail ins, typically do NOT apply to FDIC insured accounts. It applies to BONDHOLDERS of bonds issued by the bank most significantly as well as other DEBTORS of the bank.

I have seen articles in Zero Hedge that ge this wrong and are written by very sophisticated people. I think sometimes writers actually do understand the limitations, but prefer to obfuscate the issue to make it more dramatic.

Because deposit accounts are debts of the banks they automatically jump to bail in coverage.

There are of course other risks (currency risks, govt surveillance) associated w holding money in regulated, FDIC INSURED accounts.

Now, if an insured bank goes down and goes through bankruptcy (under FDICIA federal legislation) there COULD be a substantial delay in getting your accounts covered by the Feds. But that is a very different risk than saying the bank has the right to take insured accounts when it gets wobbly.

Finally, if you bank w a bank that is "systemically important" or critical etc there may be some additional risk there as the bankruptcy rules are different for those banks now. But even there Uncle Sugar covers the insured accounts.

Otherwise there would be bank runs and banks would lose their cheapest source of capitalization. That is the whole point.
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Old 03-18-2018, 08:53 PM   #1184
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I own GS and JPM (bought 2 years ago and double downed a year ago), and ryf which I add to every now and then as a hedge against rates going up.

I think i would buy citi or BAC next. But finance is so not sexy to me. I can’t see any of them doubling in 2-3 years where I could see that on some solid cap biotech’s or even large cap tech companies (nflx salesforce twilio etc).

I really need to understand non tech sectors better.

Been wanting to buy baba bidu or tencent on the next China dip as I don’t own any. Not sure which ones I prefer.
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Old 03-18-2018, 09:00 PM   #1185
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I own

C
BAC
MS
GS

Those are my 4 current financial positions.

There really aren't any others I'm interested in other than JPM. That's one I'd like to own but it doesn't ever come down to Earth.

I was getting close to buying some when Jamie Dimon bought a pile of the stock and the price skyrocketed.

There's always another stock and another correction though.
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Old 03-20-2018, 09:31 AM   #1186
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Just for some info to help you plan your investments.

The economy has some problems. They are concealed under your very nose right now. But I've been watching. Look, we've never actually recovered from any of the downturns. What we have is speculation driven markets. The underpinnings of real economy are weak and especially the commercial sector is showing the rotten bones of it's foundation atm, aka lifting it's skirt.

This is outside of the stock market but it obviously will impact there. Plan. Either it gets shored up or the weaker foundations are going to slip again. 90s style.

Not doom and gloom just a reality check. This means there are opportunities to abound on the down market. It won't last long. But a raise and a bonus do not fix three decades of economic issues. Sometimes I think Trump is fighting more of an economic war than anything else. He's trying to rebuild the rotten foundations of US economic power and buy power. But you don't fix 30 years of False Economy overnight. Its been patched and duct-taped together at some point someone is going to need to bring in the house lift, pull it off its rotten timbers and get a whole new foundation laid.

Just a few indicators I don't mind sharing so you can do your own on the ground research.

ASK: Why are men's shoes not in stores that used to carry them or they only have a few?
ASK: Why are there holes in the shelves for common need items for weeks or months even at a time before being restocked?
ASK: Why homogenization is increasing now along with prices, just like it did in the mid and late 90s.
ASK: How food prices have managed to stay low during the massive inflation of the 08+ years? Why is that no longer effective?

Of course there are other indicators but there should be some opportunity to buy up on the slide and make out like a champ. These sorts of things are not "forever" but just indicative of an economy that needs some serious help. When the market rebounds you make a fortune. Maybe a short position is in order. Time Horizon is uncertain atm.

BTW, I'd like to congratulate Doc on his predictions. They matched mine but I didn't want to say anything. Like you.. hehe my wife's 401K is looking very nice after recent shifts.

Remember big money is made on down markets. Let the speculation commence!
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Old 03-21-2018, 10:08 AM   #1187
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Thank you guys for this thread! I greatly appreciate you all sharing but I'm curious as to where you get your financial news, please?

Does anyone use these guys?
https://www.financialsamurai.com/
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Old 03-21-2018, 11:15 AM   #1188
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I use a lot of different sites for information, the pieces of which I put together.

Each is good at a specific item.

For news, I have CNBC on most of the day.
Plenty of lefty propaganda and bullshit pundits but you must have real time news. Well, at least it's close.

More than anything, I read the charts and financial/valuation information.

I did take a brief look at that financial samurai site and I wasn't impressed.
That's me though. I think I'm way beyond the level they are speaking on.
Everyone's level of knowledge and strategy is different however. We all start somewhere.

I remember when I started self investing. After paying what attention I could and learning along the way, I dedicated myself for 6 weeks, reading information on investing (all off the internet). Every day I spent 8-12 hours on learning. At that point, I started a trial run of small trades and did that for a month. I cashed out and evaluated my performance, read up some more.
Then I took the dive.

FWIW, 8-12hours/day for 6 weeks would likely be more for most other people. I read very fast, learn rapidly and have a great memory. Not the case for most people so it might take more for some.

After all that and 4 years experience doing it, I still have flops, I'm still learning.

EVERY DAY IS DIFFERENT

Recognize that going in.

And the greatest threat to your investments is yourself.
It is crucial to dump the emo bullshit on day one.
If you can't do that, self investing may not be for you.
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Old 03-21-2018, 11:22 AM   #1189
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Doc,

I can't thank you enough for that info. It reinforces that there is no "get rich quick" scheme and hard work/perseverance/attention to detail pays off in the long run.

I doubt I'll ever meet you IRL but if I do, I owe you lunch.

Much appreciated, Sir!

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Old 03-22-2018, 08:44 PM   #1190
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Today's Insider Info, use as details to interpret market data and potentials:

Transport is in crisis. Unless the corporation has a division with their own trucks regulations have caused a major squeeze on the industry. Trucks simply are NOT available to meet current demand. Goods cannot get to market. This is why I mentioned empty shelves before but I had conformation concerning difficulty of smaller outfits getting trucks and the increased costs they are having to eat.

Brown Water Transport is tepid. No new orders for needed components for additional or even maintenance of brown water transport in any significance. This is DOWN from last year.

Oil is slightly optimistic but being very careful. New orders for components and machinery that was previous year only being kept operation via "parts replacement" and only "as needed". This of course is because of higher oil prices. This could easily reverse.

Transportation and Energy have a ripple effect in the economy. Follow the ripple and you can get some good deals or get caught in a crash and burn. Still knowledge is power. I don't bother mentioning the graphs because all of you can get that information. I have industry contacts across a lot of industries that are critical economic engines and indicators. I use that information to augment my understanding and predictions. So, I am sharing. Hope it helps you.
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